"In September 1976 William Jaeger, a member of the partnership that owned Freemark Abbey Winery, had to make a decision: should he harvest the Riesling grapes immediately or leave them on the vines despite the approaching storm? A storm just before the harvest is usually detrimental, often ruining the crop. A warm, light rain, however, will sometimes cause a beneficial mold, botrytis cinerea, to form on the grape skins. The result is a luscious, complex sweet wine, highly valued by connoisseurs."
- There was a 50% chance the storm would hit Napa Valley
- There was a 40% chance that, if the storm did strike, it would lead to the development of botrytis mold
- If Jaeger pulled grapes before the storm, he could produce wine that would sell for $2.85 per bottle
- If he didn't pull and the storm DID strike (but didn't produce the mold), he could produce wine that would sell for $2.00 per bottle
- If he didn't pull and the storm DID strike (and did produce the mold), he could produce wine that would sell for $8.00 per bottle (although at 30% less volume because of the process to produce this wine)
- If he didn't pull and the storm DIDN'T strike, he could produce wine that would sell for $3.50 per bottle
I can imagine several different versions of the problem depending on the group of students you were working with (by adding/removing details and alternative scenarios). I am attaching the printouts that I photographed in case anyone wants the details.
freemark_front.jpg |
freemark_back.jpg |